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Ulrich Hoffrage

Contact

Full Professor
Department of Organizational Behavior


Contact
Ulrich.Hoffrage@unil.ch
Internef, room 614
Tel 021.692.34.90

Postal address
Université de Lausanne
Quartier UNIL-Chamberonne
Bâtiment Internef
1015 Lausanne

Teaching

bachelor Judgment and Decision Making
Related programme
Bachelor of Science (BSc) in Management
master Managerial Decision Making
Related programmes
Master of Science (MSc) in Management, Orientation Marketing
Maîtrise universitaire ès Sciences en management, Orientation Behaviour, Economics and Evolution
Master of Science (MSc) in Management, Orientation Business Analytics
Master of Science (MSc) in Management, Orientation Strategy, Organization and Leadership
Master in Law and Economy
bachelor Séminaire: Jugement et prise de décision
Related programme
Bachelor of Science (BSc) in Management
master Unethical Decision Making - Advanced
Related programmes
Master of Science (MSc) in Finance, Orientation Corporate Finance
Master of Science (MSc) in Finance, Orientation Asset and Risk Management
Master of Science (MSc) in Finance : Financial Entrepreneurship and Data Science
Master of Science (MSc) in Management, Orientation Marketing
Maîtrise universitaire ès Sciences en management, Orientation Behaviour, Economics and Evolution
Master of Science (MSc) in Management, Orientation Business Analytics
Master of Science (MSc) in Management, Orientation Strategy, Organization and Leadership
Master in Law and Economy
master Unethical Decision Making - Basics
Related programmes
Master of Science (MSc) in Finance, Orientation Corporate Finance
Master of Science (MSc) in Finance, Orientation Asset and Risk Management
Master of Science (MSc) in Finance : Financial Entrepreneurship and Data Science
Master of Science (MSc) in Management, Orientation Marketing
Maîtrise universitaire ès Sciences en management, Orientation Behaviour, Economics and Evolution
Master of Science (MSc) in Management, Orientation Business Analytics
Master of Science (MSc) in Management, Orientation Strategy, Organization and Leadership
Master in Law and Economy

Assistants

Konstantinos Armaos
konstantinos.armaos@unil.ch
Tel: (021 692) 3494
Room: NEF 621

full description
  Edouard Gander
edouard.gander@unil.ch



 
Matthieu Legeret
matthieu.legeret@unil.ch
Tel: (021 692) 3494
Room: NEF 621

full description
  Yasmin Schwegler
yasmin.schwegler@unil.ch
Tel: (021 692) 3494
Room: NEF 621

full description
 

Publications

100 last publications ordered by: publication type  -  year

: Peer Reviewed

Articles

Marewski J.N., Hoffrage U. ; Fisher R.P. (2016). Modeling and Aiding Intuition: Introduction to the Commentary Section. Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition, 5, 318-321. Peer Reviewed


Garcia-Retamero R., Cookely E. ; Hoffrage U. (2015). Visual aids improve diagnostic inferences and metacognitive judgment calibration. Frontiers in Psychology, 6, NA. Peer Reviewed


Hafenbrädl S. , Hoffrage U. (2015). Toward an ecological analysis of Bayesian inferences: How task characteristics influence responses. Frontiers in Psychology, 6, 1-15. Peer Reviewed


Hoffrage U., Hafenbrädl S. ; Bouquet C. (2015). Natural frequencies facilitate diagnostic inferences of managers. Frontiers in Psychology, 6, 1-11. Peer Reviewed


Hoffrage U. , Koller M. (2015). Chances and risks in medical risk communication. GMS German Medical Science - an Interdisciplinary Journal, 13, 1-7. Peer Reviewed


Hoffrage U. , Koller M. (2015). Chancen und Risiken der Risikokommunikation in der Medizin. GMS German Medical Science - an Interdisciplinary Journal, 13, 8-15. Peer Reviewed


Hoffrage U., Krauss S., Martignon L. ; Gigerenzer G. (2015). Natural frequencies improve Bayesian reasoning in simple and complex inference tasks. Frontiers in Psychology, 6, 1-14. Peer Reviewed


Hoffrage U. , Marewski J. N. (2015). Unveiling the Lady in Black: Modeling and aiding intuition. Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition, 4, 145-163. Peer Reviewed


Koller M. , Hoffrage U. (2015). Gesellschaftliche Perspektiven von Risikowahrnehmung und Risikokompetenz. GMS German Medical Science - an Interdisciplinary Journal, 13, 7-12. Peer Reviewed


Koller M. , Hoffrage U. (2015). Societal perspectives on risk awareness and risk competence. GMS German Medical Science - an Interdisciplinary Journal, 13, 1-6. Peer Reviewed


White C. M., Hoffrage U. ; Reisen N. (2015). Choice deferral can arise from absolute evaluation or relative comparison. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 21, 140-157. Peer Reviewed


Woike J. K., Hoffrage U. ; Petty J. S. (2015). Picking profitable investments: The success of equal weighting in simulated venture capitalist decision making. Journal of Business Research, 68, 1705-1716. Peer Reviewed


Dietz J., Antonakis J., Hoffrage U., Krings F., Marewski J. N. ; Zehnder C. (2014). Teaching evidence-based management with a focus on producing local evidence. Academy of Management Learning and Education, 13, 397-414. Peer Reviewed


Garcia-Retamero R. , Hoffrage U. (2013). Visual representation of statistical information improves diagnostic inferences in doctors and their patients. Social Science and Medicine, 83, 27-33. Peer Reviewed


Marewski J. N. , Hoffrage U. (2013). Processes models, environmental analyses, and cognitive architectures: Quo vadis quantum probability theory? (Commentary on Pothos and Busemeyer). Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 36, 297-298. Peer Reviewed


Gonin M., Palazzo G. ; Hoffrage U. (2012). Neither Bad Apple nor Bad Barrel: How the Societal Context Impacts Unethical Behavior in Organizations. Business Ethics: A European Review, 21, 31-46. Peer Reviewed


Marewski J. N. , Hoffrage U. (2012). Call for papers: Modeling and aiding intuitions in organizational decision making. Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition, 1, 267-268.


Palazzo G., Krings F. ; Hoffrage U. (2012). Ethical Blindness. Journal of Business Ethics, 109, 323-338. Peer Reviewed


Hoffrage U. (2011). Recognition judgments and the performance of the recognition heuristic depend on the size of the reference class. Judgment and Decision Making, 6, 43-57. Peer Reviewed


White C.M., Hafenbrädl S., Hoffrage U., Reisen N. ; Woike J.K. (2011). Are groups more likely to defer choice than their members?. Judgment and Decision Making, 6, 239-251. Peer Reviewed


Berg N. , Hoffrage U. (2010). Compressed environments: Unbounded optimizers should sometimes ignore information. Minds and Machines, 20, 259-275. Peer Reviewed


Berg N., Hoffrage U. ; Abramczuk K. (2010). Fast Acceptance by Common Experience: FACE-recognition in Schelling's model of neighborhood segregation. Judgment and Decision Making, 5, 391-410. Peer Reviewed


Garcia-Retamero R., Hoffrage U., Mueller S. M. ; Maldonado A. (2010). The Influence of Causal Knowledge in Two-Alternative Forced-Choice Tasks. Open Psychology Journal, 3, 136-144. Peer Reviewed


Reisen N. , Hoffrage U. (2010). The InterActive Choice Aid: A new approach to supporting online consumer decision making. AIS Transactions on Human-Computer Interaction, 2, 112-126. Peer Reviewed


Garcia-Retamero R. , Hoffrage U. (2009). Influencia de las creencias causales en los procesos de toma de decisiones (Influence of causal knowledge on decision-making processes). Revista Mexicana de Psicologí­a, 26, 103-111. Peer Reviewed


Skubisz C., Reimer T. ; Hoffrage U. (2009). Communicating Quantitative Risk Information. Annals of the International Communication Association, 33, 177-211.


White C. M. , Hoffrage U. (2009). Testing the tyranny of too much choice against the allure of more choice. Psychology and Marketing, 26, 280-298. Peer Reviewed


Berg N. , Hoffrage U. (2008). Rational ignoring with unbounded cognitive capacity. Journal of Economic Psychology, 29, 792-809. Peer Reviewed


Gigerenzer G., Hoffrage U. ; Goldstein D. G. (2008). Fast and frugal heuristics are plausible models of cognition: Reply to Dougherty, Franco-Watkins, and Thomas (2008). Psychological Review, 115, 230-237. Peer Reviewed


Gigerenzer G., Hoffrage U. ; Goldstein D. G. (2008). Postscript: Fast and frugal heuristics. Psychological Review, 115, 238-239.


Hoffrage U., Garcia-Retamero R. ; Czienskowski U. (2008). Compound cue processing in linearly and nonlinearly separable environments. The Psychological Record, 58, 301-314. Peer Reviewed


Reisen N., Hoffrage U. ; Mast F. W. (2008). Identifying decision strategies in a consumer choice situation. Judgment and Decision Making, 3, 641-658. Peer Reviewed


Rieskamp J. , Hoffrage U. (2008). Inferences under time pressure: how opportunity costs affect strategy selection. Acta Psychologica, 127, 258-276. Peer Reviewed


Garcia-Retamero R., Hoffrage U. ; Dieckmann A. (2007). When one cue is not enough: combining fast and frugal heuristics with compound cue processing. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 60, 1197-1215. Peer Reviewed


Garcia-Retamero R., Hoffrage U., Dieckmann A. ; Ramos M. M. (2007). Compound cue processing within the fast and frugal heuristics approach in nonlinearly separable environments. Learning and Motivation, 38, 16-34. Peer Reviewed


Gigerenzer G. , Hoffrage U. (2007). The role of representation in Bayesian reasoning: Correcting common misconceptions. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 30, 264-267. Peer Reviewed


Reimer T., Hoffrage U. ; Katsikopoulos K. V. (2007). Entscheidungsheuristiken in Gruppen [Heuristics in group decision-making]. NeuroPsychoEconomics, 2, 7-29. Peer Reviewed


Reimer T., Kuendig S., Hoffrage U., Park E. ; Hinsz V. (2007). Effects of the information environment on group discussions and decisions in the hidden-profile paradigm. Communication Monographs, 74, 1-28. Peer Reviewed


Garcia-Retamero R. , Hoffrage U. (2006). How causal knowledge simplifies decision-making. Minds and Machines, 16, 365-380. Peer Reviewed


Reimer T. , Hoffrage U. (2006). The ecological rationality of simple group heuristics: effects of group member strategies on decision accuracy. Theory and Decision, 60, 403-438. Peer Reviewed


Reimer T. , Hoffrage U. (2005). Can simple group heuristics detect hidden profiles in randomly generated environments. Swiss Journal of Psychology, 64, 21-37. Peer Reviewed


Dhami M., Hertwig R. ; Hoffrage U. (2004). The role of representative design in an ecological approach to cognition. Psychological Bulletin, 130, 959-988. Peer Reviewed


Hoffrage U. , Reimer T. (2004). Models of bounded rationality: The approach of fast and frugal heuristics. Management Revue, 15, 437-459. Peer Reviewed


Betsch T., Hoffmann K., Hoffrage U. ; Plessner H. (2003). Intuition beyond recognition : when less familiar events are liked more. Experimental Psychology, 50, 49-54. Peer Reviewed


Hertwig R., Fanselow C. ; Hoffrage U. (2003). Hindsight bias : how knowledge and heuristics affect our reconstruction of the past. Memory, 11, 357-377. Peer Reviewed


Hoffrage U. (2003). Risikokommunikation bei Brustkrebsfrüherkennung und Hormonersatztherapie. [Risk communication in the early identification of breast cancer and hormone-replacement therapy]. Zeitschrift für Gesundheitspsychologie, 11, 76-86. Peer Reviewed


Hoffrage U. , Pohl R. F. (2003). Research on hindsight bias: a rich past, a productive present, and a challenging future. Memory, 11, 329-335. Peer Reviewed


Hoffrage U., Weber A., Hertwig R. ; Chase V. (2003). How to Keep Children Safe in Traffic: Find the Daredevils Early. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 9, 249-260. Peer Reviewed


Hoffrage U., Gigerenzer G., Krauss S. ; Martignon L. (2002). Representation facilitates reasoning: what natural frequencies are and what they are not. Cognition, 84, 343-352. Peer Reviewed


Kurzenhäuser S. , Hoffrage U. (2002). Teaching bayesian reasoning: an evaluation of a classroom tutorial for medical students. Medical Teacher, 24, 516-521. Peer Reviewed


Martignon L. , Hoffrage U. (2002). Fast, frugal and fit : simple heuristics for paired comparison. Theory and Decision, 52, 29-71. Peer Reviewed


Hertwig R. , Hoffrage U. (2001). Empirische Evidenz für einfache Heuristiken. Psychologische Rundschau, 52, 162-165. Peer Reviewed


Hertwig R. , Hoffrage U. (2001). Eingeschränkte und ökologische Rationalität : ein Forschungsprogramm. [Bounded and ecological rationality: A research program]. Psychologische Rundschau, 52, 11-19. Peer Reviewed


Hoffrage U. (2001). Does Knowing 'Who Is Rational' Tell Us Why and When People are Irrational?. Theory and Psychology, 11, 852-855.


Hoffrage U., Lindsey S., Hertwig R. ; Gigerenzer G. (2001). Statistics: What seems natural? Response. Science, 292, 854-855. Peer Reviewed


Hoffrage U. (2000). Why the analyses of cognitive processes matter. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 23, 679-680.


Hoffrage U., Hertwig R. ; Gigerenzer G. (2000). Hindsight bias : a by-product of knowledge updating?. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 26, 566-581. Peer Reviewed


Hoffrage U., Kurzenhäuser S. ; Gigerenzer G. (2000). Wie kann man die Bedeutung medizinischer Testbefunde besser verstehen und kommunizieren ? [How to improve the communication and understanding of medical test results?]. Zeitschrift für ärztliche Fortbildung und Qualitätssicherung, 94, 713-719. Peer Reviewed


Hoffrage U., Lindsey S., Hertwig R. ; Gigerenzer G. (2000). Communicating statistical information. Science, 290, 2261-2262. Peer Reviewed


Todd P. M. , Gigerenzer G. (2000). How can we open up the adaptive toolbox. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 23, 767-780.


Gigerenzer G. , Hoffrage U. (1999). Overcoming Difficulties in Bayesian Reasoning: A Reply to Lewis and Keren (1999) and Mellers and McGraw (1999). Psychological Review, 106, 425-430. Peer Reviewed


Gigerenzer G., Hoffrage U. ; Ebert A. (1998). AIDS counselling for low-risk clients. AIDS Care, 10, 197-211. Peer Reviewed


Hoffrage U. , Gigerenzer G. (1998). Using natural frequencies to improve diagnostic inferences. Academic Medicine, 73, 538-540. Peer Reviewed


Hertwig R., Gigerenzer G. ; Hoffrage U. (1997). The reiteration effect in hindsight bias. Psychological Review, 104, 194-202. Peer Reviewed


Gigerenzer G. , Hoffrage U. (1995). How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction : frequency formats. Psychological Review, 102, 684-704. Peer Reviewed


Gigerenzer G., Hoffrage U. ; Kleinbölting H. (1991). Probabilistic mental models : a Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psychological Review, 98, 506-528. Peer Reviewed


Books

Martignon L. , Hoffrage U. (In Press). Wer wagt, gewinnt? Wie Sie die Risikokompetenz von Kindern und Jugendlichen fördern können. Hogrefe Verlag.


Hertwig R., Hoffrage U. ; the ABC Research Group (2013). Simple Heuristics in a Social World. Oxford University Press, New York, NY.


Todd P. M., Gigerenzer G. ; the ABC Research Group (Ulrich Hoffrage is member of the ABC Research Group) (2012). Ecological rationality - Intelligence in the world. Oxford University Press, New York, NY.


(2002). Fremdenfeindlichkeit und Rechtsextremismus : Dokumentation einer multidisziplinären Vortragsreihe. Leske + Budrich, Opladen.


Gigerenzer G., Todd P. M. ; the ABC Research Group (Eds.) (1999). Simple heuristics that make us smart. Oxford University Press, New York.


Book Sections

Hoffrage U., Hafenbrädl S. ; Marewski J.N. (2018). The fast-and-frugal heuristics program. The Routledge International Handbook of Thinking and Reasoning (pp. 325-345). Taylor and Francis, Abingdon, Oxon.


Hoffrage U. , Garcia-Retamero R. (2018). Improving Understanding of Health-Relevant Numerical Information. Psychological Perspectives on Risk and Risk Analysis (pp. 279-298). Springer International Publishing, New York, NY.


Hoffrage U. (2016). Overconfidence. Cognitive illusions: Intriguing phenomena in thinking, judgement, and memory (pp. 291-314). Psychology Press, Hove, UK.


Hoffrage U. , Hafenbrädl S. (2016). Cognitive Illusions. The SAGE Encyclopedia of Theory in Psychology (pp. 149-151). SAGE Publications, Inc., Thousand Oaks, CA.


Berg N., Abramczuk K. ; Hoffrage U. (2013). Fast Acceptance by Common Experience: Augmenting Schelling's Neighborhood Segregation Model With FACE-Recognition. Simple Heuristics in a Social World (pp. 225-258). Oxford University Press, New York, NY.


Hafenbrädl ., Hoffrage U. ; White C.M. (2013). The impact of affect on willingness-to-pay and desired-set-size. Progress in Brain Research (Vol. 202, pp. 21-35). Elsevier, Amsterdam, Netherlands.


Hertwig R. , Hoffrage U. (2013). Simple heuristics: The foundations of adaptive social behavior. Simple heuristics in a social world (pp. 3-36). Oxford University Press, New York.


Reimer T. , Hoffrage U. (2013). Simple Heuristics and Information Sharing in Groups. Simple heuristics in a social world (pp. 319-342). Oxford University Press, New York, NY.


Hertwig R., Hoffrage U. ; Sparr R. (2012). How estimation can benefit from an imbalanced world. Ecological rationality: Intelligence in the world (pp. 379-406). Oxford University Press, New York, NY.


Kurzenhäuser S. , Hoffrage U. (2012). Designing risk communication in health. Ecological rationality: Intelligence in the world (pp. 428-453). Oxford University Press, New York, NY.


Reimer T. , Hoffrage U. (2012). Ecological rationality for teams and committees: Heuristics in group decision making. Ecological rationality: Intelligence in the world (pp. 335-359). Oxford University Press, New York, NY.


Hoffrage U. (2011). How People Can Behave Irresponsibly and Unethically Without Noticing It. Responsible Management Practices for the 21st Century (pp. 173-182). Pearson Education, Paris.


Hoffrage U. (2011). Comment se comporter d'une manière irresponsable et contraire à l'éthique sans s'en apercevoir. Pour un Management Responsable au 21e Siècle (pp. 185-195). Pearson.


Hoffrage U. , Hertwig R. (2011). Simple Heuristics in a Complex Social World. Social Judgment and Decision Making (pp. 135-150). Psychology Press, Hove, UK.


de Treville S., Hoffrage U. ; Petty J. S. (2009). Managerial Decision Making and Lead Times: The Impact of Cognitive Illusions. Rapid Modelling for Increasing Competitiveness (pp. 3-14). London, UK: Springer.


Gigerenzer G., Hertwig R., Hoffrage U. ; Sedlmeier P. (2008). Cognitive Illusions Reconsidered. Handbook of experimental economics results (Vol. 1, pp. 1018-1034). North Holland/Elsevier Press, Amsterdam, Netherlands.


Gigerenzer G., Martignon L., Hoffrage U., Rieskamp J., Czerlinski J. ; Goldstein D. (2008). One-Reason Decision Making. Handbook of Experimental Economics Results (Vol. 1, pp. 1004-1017). North Holland/Elsevier Press, Amsterdam, Netherlands.


Hoffrage U. , Vitouch O. (2008). Evolutionäre Psychologie des Denkens und Problemlösens [Evolutionary psychology of thinking and problem solving]. Allgemeine Psychologie (pp. 630-679). Spektrum Akademischer Verlag, Heidelberg.


Hoffrage U. (2007). Hindsight Bias. Encyclopedia of social psychology (pp. 430-431). Sage, Thousand Oaks, CA.


Hoffrage U. (2006). Evolutionäre Ansätze. Handbuch der Allgemeinen Psychologie - Kognition (Vol. 5, pp. 400-405). Hogrefe, Göttingen, Germany.


Hoffrage U. , Hertwig R. (2006). Which world should be represented in representative design?. Information sampling and adaptive cognition (pp. 381-408). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.


Wassner C. , Hoffrage U. (2006). Irren ist wahrscheinlich: praktische Anwendungsbeispiele zur besseren Vermittlung von Wahrscheinlichkeiten. Anregungen zum Stochastikunterricht (Vol. 3, pp. 78-85). Franz Beck, Hildesheim.


Hoffrage U. (2005). Heuristics: fast and frugal. Encyclopedia of Statistics in Behavioral Science (Vol. 2, pp. 795-799). Wiley, Chichester, UK.


Hoffrage U., Hertwig R. ; Gigerenzer G. (2005). Die ökologische Rationalität einfacher Entscheidungs- und Urteilsheuristiken [The ecological rationality of simple decision and judgment heuristics]. Rationalität im Prozess kultureller Evolution: Rationalitätsunterstellungen als eine Bedingung der Möglichkeit substantieller Rationalität des Handelns (Vol. 132, pp. 65-89). Tübingen, Deutschland: Mohr Siebeck.


Hoffrage U., Kurzenhäuser S. ; Gigerenzer G. (2005). Understanding the results of medical tests: why the representation of statistical information matters. Science and medicine in dialogue: thinking through particulars and universals (pp. 83-98). Westport: Praeger Publishers.


Schlegelberger B. , Hoffrage U. (2005). Implikationen der genetischen Beratung bei Hochrisiko-Familien für erblichen Brust- und Eierstockkrebs. BRCA - Erblicher Brust- und Eierstockkrebs: Beratung, Testverfahren, Kosten (pp. 33-58). Berlin: Springer Verlag.


Todd P. M., Hertwig R. ; Hoffrage U. (2005). Evolutionary cognitive psychology. The handbook of evolutionary psychology (pp. 776-802). Wiley, 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030-5774.


Hoffrage U. (2004). Overconfidence. Cognitive Illusions: A Handbook on Fallacies and Biases in Thinking, Judgement and Memory (pp. 235-254). Hove, UK: Psychology Press.


Hoffrage U. , Gigerenzer G (2004). How to improve the diagnostic inferences of medical experts. Experts in science and society (pp. 249-268). New York: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers.


Keywords

  • decision making biais
  • decision making processes (2)
  • managerial decision making (2)

 
 
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