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Predictive Models of Species' Distribution

  • Teacher(s): A.Guisan
  • Course given in: English
  • ECTS Credits: 3 credits
  • Schedule: Spring Semester 2018-2019, 2.0h. course + 1.0h exercices (weekly average)
  •  séances
  • Related programmes:
    Master of Science (MSc) in Economics

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    Master of Science (MSc) in Management, Orientation Marketing

    Master of Science (MSc) in Management, Orientation Business Analytics

    Maîtrise universitaire ès Sciences en management, Orientation Behaviour, Economics and Evolution

 

Objectives

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly important in ecology and conservation biology. This course proposes an introduction to these models and related concepts and methods. Overview of the main ssteps of model building. Advantages and limitations. Applications to various domains.

See https://applicationspub.unil.ch/interpub/noauth/php/Ud/ficheCours.php?v_ueid=284&v_etapeid1=28193&v_semposselected=-1&v_langue=en&v_isinterne=1&v_enstyid=62608&v_blocid=25867

Contents

Chap. 1. Introduction to species' niche & distributions, and related models. Theory and principles behind these models. Competition and disperal limitations. Types of response variables, main predictive modelling approaches, field sampling design, from predicting species distributions to predicting communities.

Chap. 2. Model calibration. Presence-only versus presence-absence data, statistical theory and methods for presence-only data, regressions and classifications for presence-absence, ensemble modelling and forecasting.

Chap. 3. Model evaluation. Internal versus external evaluation. Data and metrics for evaluation. Crossvalidation, jackknife, bootstrap, uncertainties.

Chap. 4. Assumptions behind these models. Pseudo-equilibrium, niche conservatism, niche completeness, realized niche, and other postulates.

References

Guisan, A. & Zimmermann, N.E. (2000). Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecological Modelling 135(2-3): 147-186.

Guisan A, Thuiller W (2005) Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecology Letters, 8, 993-1009.

Guisan et al. (2013) Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions. Ecology Letters 16: 1424-1435.

Pre-requisites

If possible, course 'Spatial Analyses & GIS' (ANSPAT) in 1st semester of the Master

$ Schedule detail : http://ecoledebiologie.cms.unil.ch/eb-bec/files/live/sites/ecoledebiologie/files/shared/_Master/Programme%20d'%c3%a9tudes/Horaires/MSc%20BEC-BEE%20P19.pdf Cours non ouvert aux étudiant·e·s d'échange

Evaluation

First attempt

Exam:
Without exam (cf. terms)  
Evaluation:

Organised by the School of Biology. Continuous crontrol. 1/2 practicals report, 1/2 paper presentation.

Retake

Exam:
Without exam (cf. terms)  
Evaluation:

Organised by the School of Biology. Continuous crontrol. 1/2 practicals report, 1/2 paper presentation.



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