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Ulrich Hoffrage

Contact

Full Professor
Department of Organizational Behavior


Contact
Ulrich.Hoffrage@unil.ch
Internef, room 614
Tel 021.692.34.90

Postal address
Université de Lausanne
Quartier UNIL-Chamberonne
Bâtiment Internef
1015 Lausanne

Teaching

bachelor Judgment and Decision Making
Related programmes
Bachelor of Science (BSc) in Management
Bachelor (BSc) in Economic Sciences
master Managerial Decision Making
Related programmes
Master of Science (MSc) in Management, Orientation Strategy, Organization and Leadership
Master of Science (MSc) in Management, Orientation Marketing
Maîtrise universitaire ès Sciences en management, Orientation Behaviour, Economics and Evolution
Master of Science (MSc) in Management, Orientation Business Analytics
Master of Law (MLaw) in Law and Economics
bachelor Seminar: Judgment and decision making
Related programmes
Bachelor of Science (BSc) in Management
Bachelor (BSc) in Economic Sciences
master Unethical Decision Making - Advanced
Related programmes
Master of Science (MSc) in Finance, Orientation Asset and Risk Management
Master of Science (MSc) in Finance : Financial Entrepreneurship and Data Science
Master of Science (MSc) in Finance, Orientation Corporate Finance
Master of Science (MSc) in Management, Orientation Strategy, Organization and Leadership
Master of Science (MSc) in Management, Orientation Marketing
Maîtrise universitaire ès Sciences en management, Orientation Behaviour, Economics and Evolution
Master of Science (MSc) in Management, Orientation Business Analytics
Master of Law (MLaw) in Law and Economics
master Unethical Decision Making - Basics
Related programmes
Master of Science (MSc) in Finance, Orientation Asset and Risk Management
Master of Science (MSc) in Finance : Financial Entrepreneurship and Data Science
Master of Science (MSc) in Finance, Orientation Corporate Finance
Master of Science (MSc) in Management, Orientation Strategy, Organization and Leadership
Master of Science (MSc) in Management, Orientation Marketing
Maîtrise universitaire ès Sciences en management, Orientation Behaviour, Economics and Evolution
Master of Science (MSc) in Management, Orientation Business Analytics
Master of Law (MLaw) in Law and Economics

Assistants

Konstantinos Armaos
konstantinos.armaos@unil.ch
Tel: (021 692) 3494
Room: NEF 621

full description
  Matthieu Legeret
matthieu.legeret@unil.ch
Tel: (021 692) 3494
Room: NEF 621

full description
 

Publications

100 last publications ordered by: publication type  -  year

: Peer Reviewed

2019

Hoffrage Ulrich (2019). Persönliche Verantwortung und Verantwortungsübernahme in Systemen. Pädiatrie & Pädologie. Peer Reviewed


Hoffrage Ulrich (2019). Digitalisierung: Verheissung und Verhängnis. AGORA - in geänderter Zeitlage, 21, 25-29.


Hoffrage Ulrich (2019). Modeling Experts with Fast-and-Frugal Heuristics.


Hoffrage Ulrich , Reisen Nils (2019). Using multiple methods to elicit choices and to identify strategies. A Handbook of Process Tracing Methods (pp. 339-352). Routledge, New York.


Martignon L. , Hoffrage U. (2019). Wer wagt, gewinnt? Wie Sie die Risikokompetenz von Kindern und Jugendlichen fördern können. Hogrefe Verlag.


2018

Hoffrage U., Hafenbrädl S. ; Marewski J.N. (2018). The fast-and-frugal heuristics program. The Routledge International Handbook of Thinking and Reasoning (pp. 325-345). Taylor and Francis, Abingdon, Oxon.


Hoffrage U. , Garcia-Retamero R. (2018). Improving Understanding of Health-Relevant Numerical Information. Psychological Perspectives on Risk and Risk Analysis (pp. 279-298). Springer International Publishing, New York, NY.


Hoffrage Ulrich (2018). From representation via planning to action: an extension of Egon Brunswik's Theory of Probabilistic Functionalism. Environment Systems and Decisions, 38, 69-73.


2017

Woike Jan K., Hoffrage Ulrich ; Martignon Laura (2017). Integrating and testing natural frequencies, naïve Bayes, and fast-and-frugal trees. Decision, 4, 234-260.


2016

Hoffrage U. (2016). Overconfidence. Cognitive illusions: Intriguing phenomena in thinking, judgement, and memory (pp. 291-314). Psychology Press, Hove, UK.


Hoffrage U. , Hafenbrädl S. (2016). Cognitive Illusions. The SAGE Encyclopedia of Theory in Psychology (pp. 149-151). SAGE Publications, Inc., Thousand Oaks, CA.


Hoffrage U. , Marewski J.N. (2016, Jan). Modeling and Aiding Intuition: In the Twilight between the Conscious and the Unconscious. The Brunswik Society, 31 (pp. 14-17).


Hoffrage U. , Marewski J.N. (2016, Jan). Modeling and aiding intution: In the twilight between the conscious and the unconscious. The Brunswik Society Newsletter, 31 (pp. 14-17).


Marewski J.N., Hoffrage U. ; Fisher R.P. (2016). Modeling and Aiding Intuition: Introduction to the Commentary Section. Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition, 5, 318-321. Peer Reviewed


2015

Garcia-Retamero R., Cookely E. ; Hoffrage U. (2015). Visual aids improve diagnostic inferences and metacognitive judgment calibration. Frontiers in Psychology, 6, NA. Peer Reviewed


Hafenbrädl S. , Hoffrage U. (2015). Toward an ecological analysis of Bayesian inferences: How task characteristics influence responses. Frontiers in Psychology, 6, 1-15. Peer Reviewed


Hoffrage U., Hafenbrädl S. ; Bouquet C. (2015). Natural frequencies facilitate diagnostic inferences of managers. Frontiers in Psychology, 6, 1-11. Peer Reviewed


Hoffrage U. , Koller M. (2015). Chancen und Risiken der Risikokommunikation in der Medizin. GMS German Medical Science - an Interdisciplinary Journal, 13, 8-15. Peer Reviewed


Hoffrage U. , Koller M. (2015). Chances and risks in medical risk communication. GMS German Medical Science - an Interdisciplinary Journal, 13, 1-7. Peer Reviewed


Hoffrage U., Krauss S., Martignon L. ; Gigerenzer G. (2015). Natural frequencies improve Bayesian reasoning in simple and complex inference tasks. Frontiers in Psychology, 6, 1-14. Peer Reviewed


Hoffrage U. , Marewski J. N. (2015). Unveiling the Lady in Black: Modeling and aiding intuition. Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition, 4, 145-163. Peer Reviewed


Hoffrage U. , Marewski J. N. (2015, Nov). Unveiling the Lady in Black: Brunswikian (and other) approaches to intuition. The Brunswik Society Newsletter, 30 (pp. 15-19).


Koller M. , Hoffrage U. (2015). Gesellschaftliche Perspektiven von Risikowahrnehmung und Risikokompetenz. GMS German Medical Science - an Interdisciplinary Journal, 13, 7-12. Peer Reviewed


Koller M. , Hoffrage U. (2015). Societal perspectives on risk awareness and risk competence. GMS German Medical Science - an Interdisciplinary Journal, 13, 1-6. Peer Reviewed


Marewski J. N. , Hoffrage U. (2015, Nov). Special issue and call for commentaries: Modeling and aiding intuition in organizational decision making. The Brunswik Society Newsletter, 30 (pp. 28-31).


White C. M., Hoffrage U. ; Reisen N. (2015). Choice deferral can arise from absolute evaluation or relative comparison. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 21, 140-157. Peer Reviewed


Woike J. K., Hoffrage U. ; Petty J. S. (2015). Picking profitable investments: The success of equal weighting in simulated venture capitalist decision making. Journal of Business Research, 68, 1705-1716. Peer Reviewed


2014

Dietz J., Antonakis J., Hoffrage U., Krings F., Marewski J. N. ; Zehnder C. (2014). Teaching evidence-based management with a focus on producing local evidence. Academy of Management Learning and Education, 13, 397-414. Peer Reviewed


2013

Berg N., Abramczuk K. ; Hoffrage U. (2013). Fast Acceptance by Common Experience: Augmenting Schelling's Neighborhood Segregation Model With FACE-Recognition. Simple Heuristics in a Social World (pp. 225-258). Oxford University Press, New York, NY.


Garcia-Retamero R. , Hoffrage U. (2013). Visual representation of statistical information improves diagnostic inferences in doctors and their patients. Social Science and Medicine, 83, 27-33. Peer Reviewed


Hafenbrädl ., Hoffrage U. ; White C.M. (2013). The impact of affect on willingness-to-pay and desired-set-size. Progress in Brain Research (Vol. 202, pp. 21-35). Elsevier, Amsterdam, Netherlands.


Hafenbrädl S. (2013). Ethics, expectations and escalation : perspectives on managerial decision making. Université de Lausanne, Faculté des hautes études commerciales. HOFFRAGE U. (Dir.)


Hertwig R. , Hoffrage U. (2013). Simple heuristics: The foundations of adaptive social behavior. Simple heuristics in a social world (pp. 3-36). Oxford University Press, New York.


Hertwig R., Hoffrage U. ; the ABC Research Group (2013). Simple Heuristics in a Social World. Oxford University Press, New York, NY.


Marewski J. N. , Hoffrage U. (2013). Processes models, environmental analyses, and cognitive architectures: Quo vadis quantum probability theory? (Commentary on Pothos and Busemeyer). Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 36, 297-298. Peer Reviewed


Reimer T. , Hoffrage U. (2013). Simple Heuristics and Information Sharing in Groups. Simple heuristics in a social world (pp. 319-342). Oxford University Press, New York, NY.


2012

Gonin M., Palazzo G. ; Hoffrage U. (2012). Neither Bad Apple nor Bad Barrel: How the Societal Context Impacts Unethical Behavior in Organizations. Business Ethics: A European Review, 21, 31-46. Peer Reviewed


Hertwig R., Hoffrage U. ; Sparr R. (2012). How estimation can benefit from an imbalanced world. Ecological rationality: Intelligence in the world (pp. 379-406). Oxford University Press, New York, NY.


Kurzenhäuser S. , Hoffrage U. (2012). Designing risk communication in health. Ecological rationality: Intelligence in the world (pp. 428-453). Oxford University Press, New York, NY.


Marewski J. N. , Hoffrage U. (2012). Call for papers: Modeling and aiding intuitions in organizational decision making. Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition, 1, 267-268.


Palazzo G., Krings F. ; Hoffrage U. (2012). Ethical Blindness. Journal of Business Ethics, 109, 323-338. Peer Reviewed


Reimer T. , Hoffrage U. (2012). Ecological rationality for teams and committees: Heuristics in group decision making. Ecological rationality: Intelligence in the world (pp. 335-359). Oxford University Press, New York, NY.


Todd P. M., Gigerenzer G. ; the ABC Research Group (Ulrich Hoffrage is member of the ABC Research Group) (2012). Ecological rationality - Intelligence in the world. Oxford University Press, New York, NY.


Woike J., Hoffrage U. ; Hertwig R. (2012, Jan). Estimating quantities: Comparing simple heuristics and machine learning algorithms. Artificial Neural Networks and Machine Learning, ICANN 2012 - 22nd International Conference on Artificial Neural Networks, Lausanne, Switzerland, September 11-14, 2012, 7553 (pp. 483-490). Springer Verlag. Peer Reviewed


2011

Hoffrage U. (2011). Recognition judgments and the performance of the recognition heuristic depend on the size of the reference class. Judgment and Decision Making, 6, 43-57. Peer Reviewed


Hoffrage U. (2011). Comment se comporter d'une manière irresponsable et contraire à l'éthique sans s'en apercevoir. Pour un Management Responsable au 21e Siècle (pp. 185-195). Pearson.


Hoffrage U. (2011). How People Can Behave Irresponsibly and Unethically Without Noticing It. Responsible Management Practices for the 21st Century (pp. 173-182). Pearson Education, Paris.


Hoffrage U. , Hertwig R. (2011). Simple Heuristics in a Complex Social World. Social Judgment and Decision Making (pp. 135-150). Psychology Press, Hove, UK.


White C.M., Hafenbrädl S., Hoffrage U., Reisen N. ; Woike J.K. (2011). Are groups more likely to defer choice than their members?. Judgment and Decision Making, 6, 239-251. Peer Reviewed


2010

Berg N. , Hoffrage U. (2010). Compressed environments: Unbounded optimizers should sometimes ignore information. Minds and Machines, 20, 259-275. Peer Reviewed


Berg N., Hoffrage U. ; Abramczuk K. (2010). Fast Acceptance by Common Experience: FACE-recognition in Schelling's model of neighborhood segregation. Judgment and Decision Making, 5, 391-410. Peer Reviewed


Garcia-Retamero R., Hoffrage U., Mueller S. M. ; Maldonado A. (2010). The Influence of Causal Knowledge in Two-Alternative Forced-Choice Tasks. Open Psychology Journal, 3, 136-144. Peer Reviewed


Reisen N. , Hoffrage U. (2010). The InterActive Choice Aid: A new approach to supporting online consumer decision making. AIS Transactions on Human-Computer Interaction, 2, 112-126. Peer Reviewed


2009

de Treville S., Hoffrage U. ; Petty J. S. (2009). Managerial Decision Making and Lead Times: The Impact of Cognitive Illusions. Rapid Modelling for Increasing Competitiveness (pp. 3-14). London, UK: Springer.


Garcia-Retamero R. , Hoffrage U. (2009). Influencia de las creencias causales en los procesos de toma de decisiones (Influence of causal knowledge on decision-making processes). Revista Mexicana de Psicologí­a, 26, 103-111. Peer Reviewed


Skubisz C., Reimer T. ; Hoffrage U. (2009). Communicating Quantitative Risk Information. Annals of the International Communication Association, 33, 177-211.


White C. M. , Hoffrage U. (2009). Testing the tyranny of too much choice against the allure of more choice. Psychology and Marketing, 26, 280-298. Peer Reviewed


Woike J. K., Hoffrage U. ; Hertwig R. (2009, Aug). Problems of Policy Capturing: A Dim Light in a Big Black Box. 22nd Conference on Subjective Probability, Utility and Decision Making (SPUDM). The European Association for Decision Making.


Woike J. K., Hoffrage U. ; Hertwig R. (2009, Nov). Comparing estimation strategies in real-world environments. Annual Meeting of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making. Peer Reviewed


2008

Berg N. , Hoffrage U. (2008). Rational ignoring with unbounded cognitive capacity. Journal of Economic Psychology, 29, 792-809. Peer Reviewed


Gigerenzer G., Hertwig R., Hoffrage U. ; Sedlmeier P. (2008). Cognitive Illusions Reconsidered. Handbook of experimental economics results (Vol. 1, pp. 1018-1034). North Holland/Elsevier Press, Amsterdam, Netherlands.


Gigerenzer G., Hoffrage U. ; Goldstein D. G. (2008). Fast and frugal heuristics are plausible models of cognition: Reply to Dougherty, Franco-Watkins, and Thomas (2008). Psychological Review, 115, 230-237. Peer Reviewed


Gigerenzer G., Hoffrage U. ; Goldstein D. G. (2008). Postscript: Fast and frugal heuristics. Psychological Review, 115, 238-239.


Gigerenzer G., Martignon L., Hoffrage U., Rieskamp J., Czerlinski J. ; Goldstein D. (2008). One-Reason Decision Making. Handbook of Experimental Economics Results (Vol. 1, pp. 1004-1017). North Holland/Elsevier Press, Amsterdam, Netherlands.


Gonin M., Palazzo G. ; Hoffrage U. (2008, May). Homo Economicus Unchained. 15th International Symposium on Ethics, Business and Society. IESE Business School - University of Navarra.


Hafenbrädl S., Hoffrage U. ; White C. M. (2008, Jan). Choosing how many options to choose from: does it depend on affective priming?. Advances in Consumer Research, Vol. XXXVI, 36 (pp. 1009). Association for Consumer Research.


Hoffrage U., Garcia-Retamero R. ; Czienskowski U. (2008). Compound cue processing in linearly and nonlinearly separable environments. The Psychological Record, 58, 301-314. Peer Reviewed


Hoffrage U. , Vitouch O. (2008). Evolutionäre Psychologie des Denkens und Problemlösens [Evolutionary psychology of thinking and problem solving]. Allgemeine Psychologie (pp. 630-679). Spektrum Akademischer Verlag, Heidelberg.


Hoffrage U., White C. ; Reisen N. (2008, Jul). Choice deferral arising from absolute evaluation or relative comparison. XXIX International Congress of Psychology.


Reisen N. , Hoffrage U. (2008, Nov). Online purchase decisions: how much influence on information display do consumers desire?. Annual Meeting of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making.


Reisen N., Hoffrage U. ; Mast F. W. (2008). Identifying decision strategies in a consumer choice situation. Judgment and Decision Making, 3, 641-658. Peer Reviewed


Rieskamp J. , Hoffrage U. (2008). Inferences under time pressure: how opportunity costs affect strategy selection. Acta Psychologica, 127, 258-276. Peer Reviewed


Woike J. K., Hoffrage U. ; Hertwig R. (2008, Nov). Reverse engineering and its problems: Separating decision strategies based on their outcomes. Annual Meeting of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making. INFORMS. Peer Reviewed


Woike J.K. , Hoffrage U. (2008, Jul). Identifiying Decision Strategies. 29th International Congress of Psychology. International Union of Psychological Science (IUPsyS). Peer Reviewed


2007

Garcia-Retamero R., Hoffrage U. ; Dieckmann A. (2007). When one cue is not enough: combining fast and frugal heuristics with compound cue processing. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 60, 1197-1215. Peer Reviewed


Garcia-Retamero R., Hoffrage U., Dieckmann A. ; Ramos M. M. (2007). Compound cue processing within the fast and frugal heuristics approach in nonlinearly separable environments. Learning and Motivation, 38, 16-34. Peer Reviewed


Gigerenzer G. , Hoffrage U. (2007). The role of representation in Bayesian reasoning: Correcting common misconceptions. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 30, 264-267. Peer Reviewed


Hoffrage U. (2007). Hindsight Bias. Encyclopedia of social psychology (pp. 430-431). Sage, Thousand Oaks, CA.


Reimer T., Hoffrage U. ; Katsikopoulos K. V. (2007). Entscheidungsheuristiken in Gruppen [Heuristics in group decision-making]. NeuroPsychoEconomics, 2, 7-29. Peer Reviewed


Reimer T., Kuendig S., Hoffrage U., Park E. ; Hinsz V. (2007). Effects of the information environment on group discussions and decisions in the hidden-profile paradigm. Communication Monographs, 74, 1-28. Peer Reviewed


2006

de Treville S., Hoffrage U. ; Petty J.S. (2006, Jan). Cognitive illusions in operations management. Proceedings of the 2006 Annual Meeting of the Academy of Management (pp. 17). Peer Reviewed


Garcia-Retamero R. , Hoffrage U. (2006). How causal knowledge simplifies decision-making. Minds and Machines, 16, 365-380. Peer Reviewed


Hoffrage U. (2006). Evolutionäre Ansätze. Handbuch der Allgemeinen Psychologie - Kognition (Vol. 5, pp. 400-405). Hogrefe, Göttingen, Germany.


Hoffrage U. , Hertwig R. (2006). Which world should be represented in representative design?. Information sampling and adaptive cognition (pp. 381-408). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.


Reimer T. , Hoffrage U. (2006). The ecological rationality of simple group heuristics: effects of group member strategies on decision accuracy. Theory and Decision, 60, 403-438. Peer Reviewed


Wassner C. , Hoffrage U. (2006). Irren ist wahrscheinlich: praktische Anwendungsbeispiele zur besseren Vermittlung von Wahrscheinlichkeiten. Anregungen zum Stochastikunterricht (Vol. 3, pp. 78-85). Franz Beck, Hildesheim.


White C. M. , Hoffrage U. (2006, Jan). Introducing the Two-Stage, Two-Threshold model of choice deferral. Proceedings of the IAREP/SABE Congress on Behavioural Economics and Economic Psychology, July 5th-8th, 2006.


2005

Berg N. , Hoffrage U. (2005, Jan). Environmental determinants of simple decision rules: no cognitive limitations needed. Proceedings of KogWis05 : The German Cognitive Science Conference 2005 (pp. 9-14). Schwabe Verlag.


Hoffrage U. (2005). Heuristics: fast and frugal. Encyclopedia of Statistics in Behavioral Science (Vol. 2, pp. 795-799). Wiley, Chichester, UK.


Hoffrage U., Garcia-Retamero R. ; Czienskowski U. (2005, Jan). The robustness of the Take The Best Configural Heuristic in linearly and nonlinearly separable environments. Proceedings of the CogSci2005 : XXVII Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 971-976). Peer Reviewed


Hoffrage U., Garcia-Retamero R. ; Czienskowski U. (2005, Jan). The robustness of the Take The Best Configural Heuristic in linearly and nonlinearly separable environments. Proceedings of KogWis05. The German Cognitive Science Conference 2005 (pp. 83-88). Schwabe Verlag.


Hoffrage U., Hertwig R. ; Gigerenzer G. (2005). Die ökologische Rationalität einfacher Entscheidungs- und Urteilsheuristiken [The ecological rationality of simple decision and judgment heuristics]. Rationalität im Prozess kultureller Evolution: Rationalitätsunterstellungen als eine Bedingung der Möglichkeit substantieller Rationalität des Handelns (Vol. 132, pp. 65-89). Tübingen, Deutschland: Mohr Siebeck.


Hoffrage U., Kurzenhäuser S. ; Gigerenzer G. (2005). Understanding the results of medical tests: why the representation of statistical information matters. Science and medicine in dialogue: thinking through particulars and universals (pp. 83-98). Westport: Praeger Publishers.


Reimer T. , Hoffrage U. (2005). Can simple group heuristics detect hidden profiles in randomly generated environments. Swiss Journal of Psychology, 64, 21-37. Peer Reviewed


Schlegelberger B. , Hoffrage U. (2005). Implikationen der genetischen Beratung bei Hochrisiko-Familien für erblichen Brust- und Eierstockkrebs. BRCA - Erblicher Brust- und Eierstockkrebs: Beratung, Testverfahren, Kosten (pp. 33-58). Berlin: Springer Verlag.


Todd P. M., Hertwig R. ; Hoffrage U. (2005). Evolutionary cognitive psychology. The handbook of evolutionary psychology (pp. 776-802). Wiley, 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030-5774.


2004

Dhami M., Hertwig R. ; Hoffrage U. (2004). The role of representative design in an ecological approach to cognition. Psychological Bulletin, 130, 959-988. Peer Reviewed


Hoffrage U. (2004). Overconfidence. Cognitive Illusions: A Handbook on Fallacies and Biases in Thinking, Judgement and Memory (pp. 235-254). Hove, UK: Psychology Press.


Hoffrage U., Gerhardus A., Christ M., Gadzicki D., Haverkamp A., Krauth C. et al. (2004). Die molekulargenetische Diagnostik des erblichen Brust- und Eierstockkrebs - BRCA: Beratungsprozesse - Testverfahren - Kosten. Ein Health Technology Assessment für den Bundesverband der AOK. Medizinische Hochschule Hannover.


Hoffrage U. , Gigerenzer G (2004). How to improve the diagnostic inferences of medical experts. Experts in science and society (pp. 249-268). New York: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers.


Keywords

  • decision making biais
  • decision making processes (2)
  • managerial decision making (2)

 
 
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